The leader of one of South Africa’s main opposition parties, Julius Malema, has been given a five-year prison term for unlawfully possessing a firearm and firing it in public, casting a huge question mark over his political career.

The 45 year-old leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) is a fierce critic of what he sees as “Western imperialism” and advocates the nationalisation of white-owned land in South Africa to address the legacy of colonialism and the racist system of apartheid.

This rhetoric has won him many supporters, especially among South Africa’s disenchanted youth but over the course of his political career, he has offended a wide range of people, from women’s rights groups to white farmers and his own political bosses.

The EFF, also known locally as the red berets, are known for their signature red overalls worn by party leaders in parliament, meant to symbolise their affinity with South Africa’s working class.

He has been convicted of hate speech multiple times and has been denied entry to the UK twice in the past year.

Not any time soon.

The EFF leader was convicted of five offences, including the unlawful possession of a firearm, discharging it in public and reckless endangerment and was given a five-year sentence.

During the trial in KuGompo City, which is the new name for East London, Malema told the court that he had fired the shots in celebration.

He has been allowed to appeal against the sentence but not the initial conviction, and until the entire process is finished, he will not go to prison.

Malema’s lawyers have said he will appeal against both the conviction and sentence.

Legal expert Ulrich Roux told the BBC that to challenge his conviction, he would first have to seek permission from the Eastern Cape high court.

If the high court agrees, he can then seek to overturn both sentence and conviction but the state “will most likely oppose his application”, according to Roux.

Malema has vowed to challenge the judgment right up to South Africa’s highest court, the Constitutional Court, if necessary.

“If it goes all the way to the Constitutional Court, we’ll most likely get a final order within four to five years’ time,” said Roux.

The short answer is yes.

In South Africa, anyone who has been given a prison sentence longer than 12 months without the option of a fine cannot serve as an MP.

The constitution, however, only regards the sentence as final once the appeal process has been exhausted, possibly in several years’ time.

This disqualification ends five years after the sentence has been completed.

Since Malema has successfully applied to appeal against his sentence and has vowed to challenge the entire case, he can keep his seat in parliament and can campaign for his party in the local elections due towards the end of the year.

Political analyst Sandile Swana told the BBC that with the appeals process likely to take several years, the EFF leader might be able to stand for re-election to parliament in 2029.

Swana also noted that even if Malema’s appeal ultimately failed and he is sent to prison, and then disqualified for five years, he could still stage a political comeback afterwards.

South Africa’s former President Jacob Zuma was handed a 15-month sentence back in 2021, meaning he was barred from becoming an MP.

However, he went on to form a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe (Spear of the Nation), which he led to third place in the 2024 elections, overtaking Malema’s EFF.

Another analyst, Khanyi Magubane, told the BBC the sentence could even help Malema’s political career, describing it as the “trump card he needs for his election campaign”.

“I believe this will position the EFF and Malema well. It’s actually going to have unintended consequences… because he will play on the public sympathy [and] use this opportunity to continue standing his ground,” she said.

Malema will be looking to turn his party’s fortunes around after suffering a series of setbacks in recent years, losing votes to Zuma’s party.

Several key leaders left the party following the 2024 elections, including party co-founder and Malema’s deputy Floyd Shivambu.

Additional reporting by Pumza Fihlani

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