At the end of July, Donald Trump announced that a “monumental” US-backed deal had been struck on Gaza, securing the phased disarmament of Hamas in parallel with Israeli military withdrawal. Three days later it was reported that another 18 people had died in Israeli airstrikes. Not for the first time, it appeared that Mr Trump’s rhetoric had only a distant relationship with the reality it purported to describe.
Such suspicions were duly confirmed yesterday. Under pressure from far-right members of his coalition, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, explicitly rejected the sequencing of a 15-point plan from the increasingly hapless Board of Peace – an international body set up by the US president – and poured scorn on “a wave of rumours of … Israeli withdrawals on all fronts”. In a direct message to the White House, Mr Netanyahu stated that “we know how to stand our ground, even against our best friends when necessary.”
In practical terms that will mean the continued, brazen violation of the terms of last October’s ceasefire agreement, since when close to 1,300 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli air assaults. Far from envisaging any withdrawal, the Israeli military has expanded its presence and now controls about 65% of the territory. Hemmed in towards the coast in the rest of the strip, much of the population faces an unrelenting daily struggle.
Formal schooling has not restarted, the healthcare system has been largely destroyed and the entry of medical and other humanitarian aid remains severely restricted. Reconstruction work has been blocked, while the first building contract issued by the Board of Peace has been for an outpost to host foreign troops. Meanwhile, the world’s attention has shifted to Mr Trump’s illegal and reckless war on Iran – a grievous miscalculation in which Israel’s prime minister also played his part.
In calling for complete Hamas disarmament before Israel makes a move, Mr Netanyahu is transparently playing for time. For two years he has relentlessly flattered the US president, and exploited his backing to pursue a scorched earth project of revenge following the Hamas massacre of October 7. But two months out from the first elections held since then, his priority now is appeasing the intransigent far-right forces who can keep him in power. Should Mr Netanyahu lose, he could face jail in relation to corruption charges first laid more than five years ago.
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Despairing Palestinians can only hope that growing White House frustration with Mr Netanyahu’s forever wars will lead to a tipping point – one that should have been reached during the Joe Biden presidency. If he opted to use it, Mr Trump has the power to isolate the Israeli prime minister, call time on his temporising and manoeuvring, and compel a different approach. Board of Peace attempts yesterday to reassure the Israeli government over the verification process for disarming Hamas indicate that we are not close to that point.
Nevertheless, ahead of challenging midterm elections for the Republicans, pro-Israel sentiment may not be the political force that it once was. Recent polling suggests that traditionally high levels of US public sympathy with Israel are on the wane. Mr Trump has a choice: he can continue to accept being played by Israel’s prime minister, or he can exert the kind of pressure that could bring genuine relief to Gaza.
