Oddsmakers reacted quickly and conservatively Sunday after news broke that Folarin Balogun’s one-game suspension for a red card was being put on hold, leaving the U.S. striker in position to play in Monday’s match against Belgium.
Team USA went from underdog to favorite in some match markets, but Balogun’s availability caused only slight adjustments overall to what is a razor-tight match according to oddsmakers.
DraftKings moved the U.S. from -115 to -140 to advance past Belgium on the Balogun news while other sportsbooks adjusted the odds only marginally. The consensus price on Monday was USA -125, with Belgium at +105.
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“Our pre-match pricing was built on the assumption that the United States would be without its leading goal scorer,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said. “With Balogun’s red card rescinded, adjustments were necessary across nearly every market.”
FIFA on Sunday suspended Balogun’s one-game ban for receiving a red card in the U.S. win over Bosnia-Herzegovina. The federation, however, has granted Belgium the right to appeal the decision, according to multiple reports. Regardless, nothing appears to be able to slow down bettors from backing the Americans.
BetMGM reported Sunday that 92% of the money that had been wagered was on the U.S. to advance past Belgium in what’s been a record-setting World Cup for the American betting market. Most of that action had come in before the Balogun news.
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More than $18 billion has already been traded on the World Cup on prediction market Kalshi. More money was bet on Sunday’s England-Mexico match than any other soccer match in Caesars Sportsbook’s history, surpassing the previous record set Saturday by Argentina-Cape Verde. The England-Mexico match attracted 50% more money than the Argentina-Cape Verde match. U.S.-Belgium is expected to top all the matches.
“Team USA on ‘Monday Night Soccer’ is expected to reclaim the top spot and set another wagering record,” Mucklow added.
