In 2021 the leaders of Australia, the UK and the US – Scott Morrison, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden – stood together to announce a plan to co-design and build eight nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.
Morrison championed the pact, having reneged on a previous agreement to purchase French-built submarines that would have cost about $90bn, (the cancellation cost alone was $5bn), and after losing office went on to work with the US defence industry.
His decision, effectively made in secret, was accepted by the incoming Albanese Labor government.
The independent Aukus public inquiry, led by myself, has been instigated to enable Australians to better understand the scope, implications and rationale of the largest ever single defence expenditure made in this country.
It is publicly funded, transparent and open to all views. As befitting of a healthy democracy, it also embodies the right of citizens to gather, listen, discuss, consider and publish on matters of national importance.
Neither the federal parliament nor the major parties have chosen to formally inquire into or substantively debate the merits of this deal.
While substantial concerns about Aukus have been expressed in motions by several Labor party branches and by senior figures including former prime minister Paul Keating and former foreign affairs ministers Gareth Evans and Bob Carr, this week’s Labor conference in Adelaide – one of the key locations for Aukus, as it happens – looks unlikely to accommodate any meaningful debate on the issue.
This is a great pity. Labor would be forfeiting the opportunity to reclaim public trust at a time when support for the two major parties is fragile. Retreating from its auspicious past, where robust debates and serious consideration of foreign affairs was a hallmark, Labor would be refusing to meaningfully interrogate the most important national conversation about defence decision-making since 1945.
Halfway through the public inquiry it is clear that substantial reservations about the Aukus pact have not abated.
Australia will commit nearly $10bn to subsidise US and UK naval shipyards so that we eventually receive newly built nuclear-powered submarines.
Experts have queried whether this payment, intended to speed up the US Virginia-class submarine building program, will actually deliver any submarines given current build rates.
The UK, already experiencing chronic difficulties with existing naval construction, is considered highly unlikely to build from scratch a new, yet-to-be-designed Aukus SSN submarine, on time or on budget.
Repeated concerns about cost blowouts have been raised. The current $368bn does not include establishing infrastructure to safely dispose of medium- and high-level radioactive waste, including weapons-grade uranium associated with the decommissioning of the submarines.
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The fundamental question of whether the submarines will be fit for purpose has also emerged as a key issue. The 1:3 ratio in submarine deployment – where for every submarine at sea, two are undergoing repairs and maintenance – means that eight submarines, in the words of Australia’s foremost naval submarine expert Peter Briggs, are “mathematically insufficient to maintain a two-ocean presence”.
Significant statements about Aukus have come from former Coalition defence ministers who support the deal. Linda Reynolds’ observation that under Aukus, the Stirling submarine base in Western Australia (where US nuclear-powered and armed submarines will be based on rotation from 2027) would be a nuclear target remains a startling admission.
Gareth Evans, one of Australia’s most experienced foreign affairs ministers, told the inquiry Aukus would see Australia’s nuclear submarines function as an extension of the American fleet.
Security and defence policy experts continue to raise crucial questions about what Aukus means for our relationships with regional neighbours, Australia’s adherence to the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty regime and whether the submarines will actually be suitable for patrolling the shallow waters of our northern coastline.
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From First Nations communities and those living in suburbs close to future Aukus activity we have heard deep anger at the absence of any prior notice, or meaningful consultation.
Despite an open invitation to the government and relevant agencies to submit to and appear at the inquiry, none has been forthcoming.
All of the questions about Aukus deserve to be fully explored and better understood at a time of rising cost-of-living pressures, global political upheaval, the spectre of increased climate risk to national security, and more. If governments won’t attend diligently to the task, then this public inquiry will.
