Star-powered France and Argentina, which both made it through the World Cup group stage with three wins, top the championship odds board as the tournament moves into the knockout stage, while the United States’ positive momentum will have sportsbooks sweating more with each game it wins.
France is the favorite to win the World Cup at +350, followed closely by reigning champion Argentina at +430, according to DraftKings odds as of Sunday morning. Both squads passed Spain on the odds board since the beginning of the tournament, and La Roja is tied with England at +700.
Brazil has moved from +950 to 12-1 since the competition started but has garnered some public betting action at those longer odds, according to DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello. Portugal (13-1) and the Netherlands (15-1) also carry varying levels of sportsbook liability, according to bookmakers at DraftKings, Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM.
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But by far the largest future liability across the American sportsbook marketplace is the United States, which has shortened from 60-1 to 30-1 since the start of the World Cup after winning Group D.
“The USA’s strong start to the tournament has driven a surge of wagers on them to win outright. They are now firmly our most-backed selection and represent our largest liability,” Caesars head of soccer Mark Bickerdike told ESPN over email. “A deep run from the USMNT wouldn’t be ideal for profitability, but it would be hugely positive from an engagement perspective.”
The United States’ wins against Paraguay and Australia were especially damaging to sportsbooks, with several reporting them as the most-bet soccer games in their histories. The books were saved a bit by the Americans dropping their final group stage game against Türkiye, with BetMGM reporting it as their most profitable game of the tournament thus far.
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Superstar players showing out has also created some caution for sportsbooks, with many bettors cashing in on the outstanding starts by Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland. Messi and Mbappe are the favorites for the Golden Boot at -110 and +275, respectively, per DraftKings odds, and all three hold varying degrees of liability for the top goal scorer award at the major sportsbooks.
“On the revenue side from day to day, I mean, we have days that are good and we have days where we absolutely get smoked,” Avello said. “Those days are when the USA wins. Those days are when the Netherlands, Argentina and France all win by a couple of goals and Mbappe scores two, Messi scores two, and Haaland scores two.”
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Overall, the 2026 World Cup has been a boon for sportsbook engagement, with several books reporting it meeting or exceeding handle expectations.
“By the time the dust clears, this could rival the college basketball tournament,” Avello said.
