On the eve of the first 48-team World Cup, everyone can dream. Reality starts to bite on June 11 when co-hosts Mexico face South Africa in the first of 104 matches.
Pierluigi Collina, who is overseeing the tournament as chairman of the FIFA Referees Committee, promises a crackdown on time wasting, penalty box skirmishes and dark arts in general. Officials will be equipped with the most sophisticated technology ever employed in the game, including the use of AI-enabled 3D avatars of every player.
But, as ever, the big question is: Who will win the World Cup?
In the entire history of this great tournament, only eight nations have lifted the Jules Rimet trophy: Brazil, Italy, Germany, Spain, Argentina, England, France and the original winners Uruguay. The unluckiest team must be Netherlands, who have lost three finals despite producing some wonderful players.
The favorites
Here is my list of eight teams that might win the World Cup, with a few reasons they might not.
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: The defending champions are sure to make another deep run, even though Lionel Messi will turn 39 during the tournament. La Albiceleste eased through qualifying and will feature many of the same stars from four years ago. But coach Lionel Scaloni needs to cleverly manage Messi’s minutes and hope his young guns such as Nico Paz and Giuliano Simeone come through. Only Brazil (1958 and 1962) and Italy (1934 and 1938) have retained the title, and this squad does have a slightly aged feel. Argentina know how to win, though.
: Didier Deschamps’ team has reached the past two World Cup finals, winning in 2018 and losing a 2022 thriller on penalties after a 3-3 draw with Argentina. The French tend to go to extremes: play brilliantly or blow up. Remember their 2010 mutiny in South Africa? However, their attacking lineup is stacked: Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki, Marcus Thuram, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Bradley Barcola. But can they defend quite as well? France’s pre-tournament 2-1 loss to the Ivory Coast raises questions.
: The five-time winners have lost their aura. It’s been 24 years since they last lifted the trophy, and they labored to a fifth-place finish in South American qualifying. But now they have the calm managerial maestro Carlo Ancelotti, and he seems to be developing the right blend of silk and steel. The 34-year-old Neymar has been recalled after a three-year absence to add to the threat of Raphinha and Vinícius Júnior. With a revived Casemiro restored to the midfield and Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães at the back, Brazil look dangerous.
: The European champions are favorites with most bookmakers, and rightly so. This is a multitalented team that has forgotten how to lose under head coach Luis de La Fuente, but there are issues. Sensational young winger Lamine Yamal might need time to acquire sharpness after suffering a hamstring injury in April; Nico Williams, so menacing on the other wing at Euro 2024, has had fitness problems; and star midfielder Rodri — the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner — has failed to regain his peak form since suffering a ruptured ACL in September 2024, and his deputy, Martín Zubimendi, lost his starting place at Arsenal this season.
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: Like Brazil, Germany have become tortured by self-doubt after going out at the group stage in the past two World Cups. They played well as hosts of Euro 2024 but had the misfortune to run into Spain in the quarterfinals and lost in extra time. Attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz, despite his problems settling at Liverpool, is a superstar for his national team, and Bayern Munich‘s Jamal Musiala will add flair to a solid-looking squad under the guidance of Julian Nagelsmann. The coach must hope his contentious decision to recall 40-year-old Manuel Neuer in goal does not rock the boat too much.
: It’s been 60 years since Geoff Hurst’s hat trick propelled England to World Cup glory in 1966, and the country’s story since then has been littered with heartbreak, though Gareth Southgate took the team to two European finals and a World Cup semifinal. His successor, Thomas Tuchel, has a gifted group of players who sailed through a soft qualifying group without conceding a goal. He also has made some big calls for this World Cup, excluding creators Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Morgan Gibbs-White and Adam Wharton, and leaving Morgan Rogers and Jude Bellingham to fight for the No. 10 spot. If striker Harry Kane can continue his wonderful Bayern Munich form, England might be in business. But can they cope with the heat, and will their defense (no Harry Maguire, and John Stones could be rusty) pass the test against the top teams?
: Manager Roberto Martinez could not deliver silverware with Belgium’s golden generation. Can he do it with possibly Portugal’s best-ever lineup? That might mean limiting the minutes of 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who is playing in his sixth World Cup. But is Martinez brave enough to do that? This squad looks really good, with the likes of PSG’s Vitinha and João Neves in midfield, Bruno Fernandes creating and scoring up front, Nuno Mendes at left back, and quality everywhere else across the pitch.
: Their 17-minute walkout in that chaotic AFCON final against Morocco led to them being stripped of the championship, though they have appealed. But this is a team with a point to prove and the ability to do exactly that — though it is in a tough group with France and Norway. Sadio Mané, 34, is still the torchbearer for a quick and physically imposing team. Whether Senegal’s defense is good enough is open to debate, and a recent 3-2 loss to the United States amplified that concern.
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The surprise selections
Apart from the above eight favorites, there are plenty of teams capable of causing a surprise or two and going deep into the tournament.
reached the semifinals four years ago and have the world’s best right back in Achraf Hakimi.
are a team in transition, but they still have lots of quality including the wing wizardry of Jérémy Doku of Manchester City.
conceded only five goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifying games and will be tough to beat.
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still have 2014 Golden Boot winner James Rodríguez, now 34, and the threat of Bayern’s Luis Díaz on the wing, with big hopes for Sporting CP striker Luis Suárez at No. 9.
, as they showed in beating England at Wembley in March and Brazil last autumn, probably have their best-ever team and will fancy their chances of progressing far.
are outsiders but have a gifted squad. They twice hammered Italy in qualifying and carry the massive threat of striker Erling Haaland up front.
, with Real Madrid’s Arda Güler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz creating chances aplenty, could surprise many.
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What about the co-hosts?
: Under Mauricio Pochettino, the U.S. navigated a rocky road to these finals. But its 3-2 pre-tournament friendly win over Senegal will have lifted morale and belief. There is enough pace and menace in attack, but the defending needs to be tighter. In that regard, it is vital that injury-prone midfielder Tyler Adams stays fit to help shield the defense.
: Manager Javier Aguirre is building a team built on solid foundations and conceding few goals. They must hope 17-year-old attacking midfielder Gilberto Mora can give them a little of the X factor they need.
: Jesse Marsch’s team will need the goals of record scorer Jonathan David to get out of a manageable group that includes Bosnia & Herzegovina, Switzerland and Qatar. It might be a close-run thing, but Canada can reach the round of 32.
Who will win it all?
So much can change during a long tournament, and there is no underestimating how big a part the heat might play, which is why I would lean toward a South American winner. Carlo Ancelotti’s ability to create a winning blend and mentality makes me give a tentative vote for Brazil to win the World Cup, just as they did in 1994.
