March Madness and the Super Bowl are typically America’s favorite events to bet on, while soccer is often relegated to niche status at U.S. sportsbooks. But with the World Cup taking place on North American soil this summer, experts believe wagering on soccer’s biggest tournament could exceed them both.
Betting industry analysts estimate $2.9 billion will be bet on the FIFA World Cup at U.S. sportsbooks, more than double the amount wagered on the 2022 tournament and a figure that could spike with a deep run by long-shot Team USA.
Bets on the NCAA basketball tournaments in the U.S. were expected to exceed $3 billion, and approximately $1.7 billion was wagered on Super Bowl LX between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, according to gambling industry reporter Chris Altruda, who used state revenue reports to form his estimate.
“The Super Bowl is the pinnacle, but the World Cup is going to be a couple dozen Super Bowls back-to-back-to-back-to-back over the span of six weeks,” Brian Josephs, vice president of Americas for Sportradar, an international data company that monitors the betting market, said.
Research firm Eilers and Krejcik Gaming said that if Team USA exceeds expectations, World Cup handle could reach $4.4 billion at American sportsbooks, which would surpass the 2026 NCAA tournament.
Even with an early exit by the Americans, U.S. sportsbooks are expecting the World Cup to be a boon for summer business. Sportsbook executives and industry experts point to advantageous time zones and a general air of excitement surrounding games being played in the country that could contribute to casual and serious bettors alike lining up to wager.
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“In general, the summer tends to be quieter. Injecting the World Cup into it totally reshapes the field of sports for the summer,” Greg Karamitis, chief revenue officer for DraftKings, told ESPN.
Last June and July, $1.7 billion was bet on all of soccer with U.S. sportsbooks, according to H2 Gambling Capital, a London-based consultancy firm. The numbers are much bigger internationally.
H2 estimates $60 billion will be bet on the World Cup at regulated sportsbooks across the globe, a 71% increase from the company’s estimate for the 2022 tournament. The increase reflects the expanded field, from 32 to 48 teams, resulting in 40 more matches, and also accounts for new legal betting markets — such as Brazil — opening since the last tournament.
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In addition to U.S. sportsbooks, people will be risking money on the World Cup on prediction markets, the increasingly popular online exchanges that facilitate stock-like trades on sports outcomes. DeFi Rate, a media outlet that tracks volume on prediction markets, projects that more than $2.5 billion could be traded on the World Cup on U.S. prediction markets.
DeFi Rate analyst Cheryle Shepstone told ESPN that trading volume on the World Cup winner was on pace to more than double the amount that was traded on the winner of the NCAA basketball tournament.
