Spain and France will begin the 2026 World Cup as the clear favorites to lift the trophy both among bettors and bookmakers, though the tournament taking place on North American soil is also pushing the United States betting public to back the home team at an outsized clip.
Spain is the consensus favorite across the sportsbook marketplace to win the World Cup, showing +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook. France is either the co-favorite or second-favorite across the marketplace, with odds ranging from +450 to +500 from book to book.
Either way, bettors across the country are backing the favorites at an astonishing rate, with BetMGM reporting over 30% of its wagers and nearly half of its handle in the World Cup winner market backing either of those two teams. Spain is the book’s second-largest liability, even at its short price.
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“I didn’t realize that this would be a steady stream of money on these teams,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Those are the two favorites that have been very popular throughout, but especially lately. Over the last week or so, those two are getting an influx of money.”
Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead Mark Bickerdike said Spain and France are “rightfully the two teams to beat,” noting that there is a notable step down to the next tier — which includes England (+700), Argentina (+950) and Brazil (+950) — in terms of public popularity.
The one exception to that is Portugal, who has seen significant action at several books, including DraftKings, where they are the third-most backed by money. The Portuguese have shortened from 10-1 to +800 at the sportsbook in recent weeks, and they are as short as +750 at other sportsbooks.
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The pre-tournament World Cup favorite has only won it all three times: West Germany in 1974, Brazil in 1994, and Spain in 2010. The largest pre-tournament long shot to win the championship was Italy, who came into the 1982 competition at 18-1, according to data from SportsOddsHistory.com.
Despite their 60-1 long-shot odds, the United States is garnering significant action from the American betting public to win the World Cup, coming in as the eighth-most backed by handle at DraftKings. Due to their exceptionally long odds, the Americans are a massive liability for the sportsbooks should they make a deep run, but bookmakers seem to welcome the enthusiasm from their customers despite the risk.
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“People are going to want to watch them and hope for them to win and bet on them. Now that we’re having games in our country, and in close proximity in Mexico and Canada, I think it makes that aspect even bigger,” said Avello. “We’re going to put them up at a fair price and we’re going to let the bettors bet them because we know that’s going to happen. And if the U.S. wins this, that’s great for our country and we’ll take our lumps.”
There is one other major underdog attracting action at multiple sportsbooks: Haiti, who comes into the fray tied for the longest World Cup winner odds at 2,500-1, per DraftKings lines. Sportsbooks stand to lose a remarkable amount of money should the Haitians pull off the incredibly unlikely, including $2.5 million from one bettor at BetMGM, who placed a $1,000 wager on the future.
